Odds of Finding the next 1982-D Small Date Bronze Cent!


According to AI, there is good and bad news about finding the third 1982-D Small Date bronze cent–perhaps the most sought after coin due to social media hype about its lottery-prize-like value.

As you read this, remember that AI is not an expert numismatist. Maybe those folks would have used different metrics. But I am an AI authority as one of the top technology professors with 48 years at top research institutions. So I expect those fellow hobbyists will be commenting and demurring and otherwise questioning these results.

Let’s have some fun.

Only two of these transitional varieties have been found since it was theorized that a copper planchet with a small date might have left the Denver Mint. Here they are, authenticated.


Some more facts: There are seven common varieties of 1982 cents: The copper ones should weigh 3.1 grams; the zinc ones, 2.5 grams. The copper ones are Large Date, Philadelphia; Small Date, Philadelphia; and Large Date, Denver. The zinc ones are Philadelphia, Large Date; Philadelphia, Small Date; Denver, Large Date; and Denver, Small Date.

The coveted transitional variety weighing 3.1 grams has these markers:


AI factored these odds: a hobbyist looking for the third example every day in a dollar’s worth of Lincoln cent pocket change over 40 years as roughly 1 in 300,000,000, or a probability of 0.0000000033.

Let’s illustrate those odds. Imagine one 1982-D Small Date 3.1 grams is mixed into 300,000,000 total cents. Let’s stack those coins one atop the other. They would reach 283 miles high, surpassing the International Space Station. Blindfolded, you pick exactly one coin from that stack anywhere up the cosmic ladder.


What? You don’t like that analogy?

How about this: You are 20,000 times more likely to be hit by lighting than finding the third example.


Here’s the AI screenshot:


But there is good news, too. AI factors that odds of another example (as many as 15-50 might exist!) being circulated in pocket change are nearly 100% probability!

Here’s the screenshot:


It was gratifying to know that AI cited Proxiblog about coins coming from two working dies. You can read that article by clicking here.

AI also included these factors:

  • The discovery coin was found in 2016.
  • The second was found in 2019.
  • This yields an empirical discovery rate of roughly 0.05 coins per year since the hunt began. This low yield confirms that while more coins exist, the vast majority of the 6.01 billion Denver cents have either been melted down, lost in landfills, or remain sitting unexamined in hoarders’ casual coin jars.

Summary of Your Search Odds

MetricStatistical Value
Odds a 3rd coin exists~100% (Virtually guaranteed)
Estimated total supply remaining15 to 50 coins
Odds per individual unsearched 1982-D cent1 in 300,000,000

Before you start celebrating and searching your grandparents’ coin jars, don’t count on winning the numismatic lottery. You would have better odds winning the Powerball jackpot (again hypothetically) if you bought a ticket every day for 40 years,

AI puts those odds as 1 in 20,000.

Remember the odds of the third 1982-D Small Date bronze coin? That’s 1 in 300,000,000!

Here is its breakdown of the math:

  • Single Ticket Odds: The odds of winning the Powerball jackpot with a single $2 ticket are 1 in 292,201,338.
  • Total Tickets Bought: Buying one ticket every day for 40 years (including leap years) equals 14,610 tickets.
  • Cumulative Probability: Each ticket is an independent event. Your cumulative chance of hitting the jackpot at least once over those 14,610 tries is roughly \(0.005\%\) (or about 1 in 20,000).

Have you made the correlation yet?

Go to the corner gas station. Buy a Powerball ticket. Your odds of winning the lottery jackpot with that single ticket is roughly the same as finding the third 1982-D Small Date bronze cent after 40 years of searching for the unicorn!


If you are intent on searching for those theorized 15-50 examples of the 1982-D Small Date bronze cent, keep doing it. Miracles happen.

Your own existence is 1 in 300,000,000!

AI states: “Yes, events with odds of 1 in 300,000,000 happen around us all the time. When dealing with massive populations or billions of trials, things that are nearly impossible for an individual become statistical guarantees on a larger scale.”

Let’s start with your own existence.

AI states, “Every person alive is the result of a 1-in-300-million event. During human conception, a typical fertile ejaculation releases between 100 million and 300 million sperm cells. The fact that one highly specific sperm successfully fertilized a specific egg to create your exact DNA blueprint means that your existence is equal to finding the third 1982-D Small Date bronze cent!”

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Proxiblog also has thousands of followers on Facebook Coin Groups, YouTube and other social media. To get the latest discussion and commentary, be sure to friend us by clicking here.

You can find more information about types, varieties, errors, grading, bidding and buying in Coin News Updated: The Essential Guide to Online Bidding. Please consider buying or gifting the work for a friend, as it underwrites this hobbyist blog. Thank you.

1946-S/D Cent


The 1946-S/D variety is highly collectible because it is the only S-over-D overmintmark in the entire Lincoln Cent series.

You will need magnification to see this variety. A loupe should do it, but you can also use a coin microscope. Here’s how it looks without magnification:


In 1946, mintmarks were hand-punched into coin dies. A mint employee punched a “D” into a working die and then realized that it should have been an “S”–a perfect example of how these errors happen. He did his best to correct human error.

To identify the 1946-S/D variety, use that magnification. Look for the curve of the “S” underneath the “D” in the upper inside loop of the “S.”


Study the crossbar of the “D” appearing through the center cavity of the “S.”

The value of a 1946-S/D cent depends on condition, eye appeal and appearance. There are three designations for cents: Brown, Red-Brown, or Red.

Color DesignationPercentage of Original Mint-Red ColorDescription
Red (RD)95% or moreRetains almost all of its original brilliant mint bloom, allowing for only very slight mellowing.
Red-Brown (RB)Between 5% and 95%A mix of original red luster and brown toning from air exposure.
Brown (BN)Less than 5%The original red color has completely or nearly completely turned into a brown patina.

As for value, from Fine to Very Fine, you are looking at a retail value of $20 to $25. In mint state red, the coin will sell for hundreds if holdered by PCGS or NGC. There have been examples in s MS66 Red for thousands of dollars.

If you are interested in varieties, be sure to check out Proxiblog’s directory, which includes articles, illustrations and markers for popular coins.


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Markers for 1916-D Dime


The 1916-D Mercury Dime is the key date of the Mercury series with a mintage of 264,000 coins. In 1916, the Philadelphia Mint made 22,180,080 coins and the San Francisco Mint, 10,450,000. Those two other mintages are important because scammers began added a mintmark to Philadelphia coins that year. Many also altered 1916-S dimes to make that mintmark look like a D.

Fortunately, we know much about the Denver mintmark. For starters, the Mint used the same punch tool for the 1916-D as it did for the coveted 1914-D Cent.


Look closely: The outer shape of the D is squared off rather than rounded. And the cavity inside the D has a vague triangular shape rather than oval.

Four reverse dies were used on the 1916-D Dime. If your coin deviates from these positions, it is fake.

Jack D. Young has a great Proxiblog article on fake 1916-Ds offered on eBay. He made this graphic below, which we use here. Take a photo of your 1916-D coin or a screenshot if you are considering purchasing one and then compare.

Two of the four genuine reverse dies feature a repunched mint mark (Dies 2 and 3 above).

Here is the example used earlier but now identified.


Genuine 1916-D Dimes often have tiny die scratches or die cracks near the date on the obverse.


It is important to know markers of rarities in coin collecting. Otherwise you may end up with a counterfeit or replica if not holdered by a major company like PCGS or NGC. Be sure to check out our rarity tab for markers of our most desirable coins.


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You can find more information about types, varieties, errors, grading, bidding and buying in Coin News Updated: The Essential Guide to Online Bidding. Please consider buying or gifting the work for a friend, as it underwrites this hobbyist blog. Thank you.

Markers for 1877 Indian Cent


One of the most counterfeited coins is the key date 1877 Indian Cent. It has a low mintage of 852,500. Genuine examples cost hundreds and thousands of dollars. A Good-4 example retails for $650. Extra fine ones go for $3,000 and MS63 Brown, $7,000.

Those values alone make it necessary to know markers so you do not end up with a fake, altered or replica coin.

On all genuine circulation strikes, a single reverse working die was used. So these markers are vital and uniform.

The “N” in ONE slowly grows weaker and shallow as it proceeds to the bottom right corner.


The top left corner of the “N” in CENT also is weakly struck and shallow when you compare it to other letters.


If these “N”s are sharply struck on the reverse, you’re looking at a counterfeit coin.

There are also obverse markers, beginning with the so-called “Slanted 77” in the date. Draw an imaginary horizontal line across the date, and the second “7” should be slightly lower than the first.


If the “7”s are parallel and equal in orientation, you have a fake coin.

You also should check the second “7” for evidence of tooling, changing the last digit of the less valuable 1871, 1874 or 1879 so it appears like a “7.”

You can also do the balance test to see if your coin is a counterfeit. Genuine Indian Head cents have beleved edges and as such cannot stand balanced on its edge. Chinese fakes have flat squared edges. You can balance these.

Also many examples of contemporary counterfeits have a mushy or weakly struck “United States of America.” On genuine coins, this should be legible and crisp. In the image below, the left example is the counterfeit.


Keep in mind that Etsy and Temu sell replicas. Example:


These replicas have many of the same markers as authentic coins and often appear on eBay as authentic.

As a rule, be especially wary of spending hundreds or thousands of dollars on raw 1877 cents if you do not know the markers or have doubts about them. Best to wait for your treasured key date graded by a top holdering company and sold on a legitimate site or shop.

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You can find more information about types, varieties, errors, grading, bidding and buying in Coin News Updated: The Essential Guide to Online Bidding. Please consider buying or gifting the work for a friend, as it underwrites this hobbyist blog. Thank you.

Markers for 1955 Doubled Die Obverse


This spectacular coin is the most famous mint variety, and as a consequence, also is one of the most counterfeited of U.S. coins. This article covers how it happened and then illustrates how you can tell if your coin is genuine.

To begin with, the 1955 DDO is dramatic! So much is doubled on the obverse. See:


The 1955 doubled die is a die variety. Even though employees at the mint made an error and did not stop production, this is a variety. The planchet was only struck once by the coining press, but the die used to strike it already had a doubled image.

In this case, during production, the hub and the die were misaligned and rotated slightly counter-clockwise, accounting for the large spread of lettering and numbers.

Coinage operators, under pressure to produce 1955 cents, failed to notice the mistake, allowing this defective die to be used in striking. Estimates are 24,000 to 40,000 coins were released being discovered.

That was the first error. The second had to do with mint officials releasing the doubled die into circulation to avoid a regional coin shortage.

Because this coin is considered an ultra rarity, it is one of the most counterfeited and replicated U.S. coins.

In genuine coins, the doubling has a large spread and is sharp, as if carved by a knife. Be wary of soft doubling and pay attention to the exact separation.

Here’s the difference between a genuine and replica, as offered by Etsy and Temu.


Note the mushy quality of the replica as well as difference in font sizes and orientation of “Liberty” and “In God We Trust.”

One more marker: In genuine coins, the portrait of Lincoln is sharp with no doubling or distortion. The above replica fails in this regard.


Any deviation or doubling on the portrait is a fake.

Only one pair of dies was used to strike the original batch, so every genuine 1955 DDO has the exact same reverse markings.

Someone claimed to have found this coin in Coinstar. Here’s how I identified it as fake:


The spread on the “55” is wrong. Hence, a fake.

One other marker. You would need a microscope to see this, but tiny vertical and polishing lines are present on the reverse in this area, along with die scratches.


Also take care to understand the difference between machine doubling and hub doubling.

FeatureGenuine 1955 DDOMachine Doubling (“Poor Man’s”)
CauseError is engraved directly onto the die.The die slipped or vibrated while striking the coin.
AppearanceBoth sets of details are raised, rounded, and fully formed.The second image looks like a flat, shaved-down “shelf”.
ScaleExtends across the date and all letters.Usually only visible on the last digit of the date.
ValueWorth thousands of dollars.Worthless face value (under $2).

Also on the reverse, a genuine 1955 Doubled Die should have a 5% slight misalignment on the die. You would need to identify that yourself.

Please do not be fooled by 1955 DDO errors as in this dramatically misaligned copy from Etsy.


All the markers in the above replica are wrong.

If you have or inherited or plan to bid on a raw 1955 DDO, make sure to check all the markers. These are expensive coins!


Holdering 1955 DDO cents is imperative to showcase authenticity. China exports tens of thousands of fake and replica examples. So if you have a raw example, or bought one, send to PCGS, NGC, ANACS or CAC for authentication.

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You can find more information about types, varieties, errors, grading, bidding and buying in Coin News Updated: The Essential Guide to Online Bidding. Please consider buying or gifting the work for a friend, as it underwrites this hobbyist blog. Thank you.

Identifying 1893-S Morgan Dollar


Fake and replica 1893-S Morgan dollars abound as only 100,000 were minted with current values in multiples of thousands of dollars. This is a summary of markers so that you can identify this coveted key date.

The basic test of any Morgan dollar is its weight: 26.73 grams and diameter of 38.1 millimeters. Any deviation is a fake.

The 1893-S was produced using a single obverse die and two reverse dies. In other words, any deviation of markers also signifies a counterfeit.

View the date. The “1” is squarely atop the fourth denticle (my illustration).


Another marker, difficult to see on worn dollars, is a faint line through the “T” in “Liberty.”


Because the reverse had two dies, they are numbered VAM-1 and VAM-2 according to the directory by Leroy Van Allen and A. George Mallis (hence, VAM after their names). The key marker is the mintmark. VAM-1 has a centered “S” and VAM-2 an “S” tilted slightly to the right.


Be careful if purchasing a 1893-S Morgan dollar. Run the above tests. Again, any deviation from the markers is a red flag for a counterfeit. China also exports counterfeits in fake PCGS holders. To learn more about that, see Jack D. Young’s “Counterfeit PCGS Morgan.”

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You can find more information about types, varieties, errors, grading, bidding and buying in Coin News Updated: The Essential Guide to Online Bidding. Please consider buying or gifting the work for a friend, as it underwrites this hobbyist blog. Thank you.

Proxiblog Featured in USA Today

Bugeja discusses 1982-D Small Date Bronze Cent


USA Today published a comprehensive article on the hype about the 1982-D Small Date bronze cent variety, noting its rarity–only two found–and odds of finding the third, along with eBay sellers out to scam others by selling ordinary cents from that year. (In 1982, the US Mint made 16,729,361,847 cents in Denver and Philadelphia.)

Proxiblog and its founder, Michael Bugeja, figure prominently in the 8/17/26 USA Today piece.

“I’m happy to see the widespread distribution of this article by Mike Snider,” Bugeja said. USA Today has an estimated weekday print circulation of roughly 89,200 to 103,600 copies, alongside over 2 million digital subscribers, making it one of the most widely read daily newspapers in the United States. “Perhaps this will enlighten all those new collectors believing they will find the rarity in pocket change.

“There are better ways to spend hobby time.”

Excerpts:


The USA Today article quotes Bugeja and Proxiblog extensively along with these other experts: John Brush, president of rare coin trading and auctioning company DLRC;  Donn Pearlman, a spokesman for the Professional Numismatists Guild; and Mary Sauvain, executive director of the Anti-Counterfeiting Educational Foundation.

You can access the USA Today article by clicking here.

For those interested in Proxiblog’s extensive coverage of the 1982-D Small Date Bronze Cent, read:

Proxiblog.org is one of the premier coin collecting sites on the web. Founded in 2011, by Michael Bugeja, former columnist for Coin World and past member of the US Treasury Department’s Citizen Coinage Advisory Committee, Proxiblog remains one of the earliest consistently accessible coin blogs. It has the largest illustrated coin glossary as well as a directory of errors and varieties with associated articles, a “new and youth hobbyist” tab, 20 most accessed articles, and some 40 coin videos about rarities, doubled dies, and other hobby insights.

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You can find more information about types, varieties, errors, grading, bidding and buying in Coin News Updated: The Essential Guide to Online Bidding. Please consider buying or gifting the work for a friend, as it underwrites this hobbyist blog. Thank you.

The Philadelphia Cent That Isn’t


Every 1922 cent should carry the “D” mintmark from Denver, which was the only facility to produce cents in 1922. But accidents happen, and a mint employee over polished a working die, erasing the “D.”

The Denver Mint struck a total of 7,160,000 Lincoln cents that year. Due to a shortage of coin dies, Denver workers polished and reused damaged, clogged dies. That is how the mistake happened.

Coin collectors know that the Philadelphia Mint typically does not use a mintmark for coinage. So the missing mintmark has the appearance of being struck at Philly.

Only about 15,000 examples exist of the missing mintmark cent, a key date for collectors and a rarity, worth hundreds and even thousands of dollars, depending on the die pairs.

That’s why identifying the rarity is important. We’ll explore that here.

The 1922 Cent is categorized as follows:

  1. Standard 1922-D (Normal mint mark)
  2. 1922 “Weak D” (Faint, blurry, or partially filled mint mark)
  3. 1922 “No D” / Plain (Mint mark completely missing)

In addition, value is assessed by die pairs:

Die Pair #1 (Weak D / No D – Weak Reverse). Mushy or missing lines on wheat stalks.
Die Pair #2 (“No D” Strong Reverse). Clear lines on wheat stalks.
Die Pair #3 (Weak D / No D – Weak Reverse). The final “2” in the date is notably weaker than the first “2”.
Die Pair #4 (Weak D / No D – Weak Reverse): Very similar to pair 3 but typically even mushier.


Scammers find it easy to erase the “D” on a well-defined 1922-D normal mintmark coin. They do so by tooling or filling the area where the mintmark should be. Here’s a suspicioius example:


This is one occasion to use a coin microscope. Any deviation on the surface is suspect.

Also keep in mind that China mass produces replicas that dishonest sellers offer as authentic. Example:


As always, if you cannot distinguish die pairs, or are unsure, do not bid on or buy any unholdered coin.

As you might anticipate, die pair #2 values are expensive.


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Proxiblog also has thousands of followers on Facebook Coin Groups, YouTube and social media. To get the latest discussion and commentary, be sure to friend us by clicking here.

You can find more information about types, varieties, errors, grading, bidding and buying in Coin News Updated: The Essential Guide to Online Bidding. Please consider buying or gifting the work for a friend, as it underwrites this hobbyist blog. Thank you.

Counterfeit Danger in Baited Dollar Rolls


In 2017, I won in an online auction a roll of Morgan dollars supposedly from a Carson City, Nev., bank. The date 1879 was on one end of the roll and the CC Mint mark of the Carson City Mint on the reverse. I paid $2,400 for the roll and reported the results for Coin World.

If the roll was actually from Carson City, with 1879-CCs therein, it would have been a magnificent score, worth tens of thousands. I knew that would not be the case. This was research for an article. As it turned out, there was one 1883-CC low mint state (the coin whose reverse showed on one end of the roll). The rest were sliders with a few uncirculated common date Morgans. A few, though, were toned, so I did recoup some of the investment. In the end, I lost more than $1,300.

That was a baited roll. In other words, someone had access to a Carson City bank paper roll and filled it so that one end had a CC, fooling optimists (fools) that other coins therein had the same rare mintmark.

This article cautions against buying these rolls on eBay, HiBid or other auction venues. Not only because almost all of these have searched already; but because the specter of counterfeits in those rolls is increasing

For instance, Jack D. Young wrote an article titled “Bad Coin Rolls,” about a seller offering two mixed rolls of small cents with an apparent 1857 Flying Eagle counterfeit cent.

Here’s a clearly opened roll from HiBid. Note how loose the ends of the roll are, even though the seller states “SEALED. (For newbies, “sealed” does NOT mean “unopened.”)


Learn what an opened roll looks like, with loose ends that the owner could not get back into original form. Example:


Proxiblog has written about photos of rolls, important before you bid or buy. You should see both ends in any offering to identify if they show evidence of being opened. Here’s a legitimate offering of Peace Dollars with one side (left) tight and original and the other (reverse side, right), opened.


Veteran hobbyists know that you should never bid on these rolls, even if both sides look tight and unopened. A good scammer can use an Exacto knife to open and reseal a roll so that it looks original. (I won’t share how to do that; I learned from my local coin dealer, decades ago, who showed me all the scammer tricks, pre Internet.)

But now, with the onslaught of Chinese fake Morgan dollars, the risk has increased. Many hobbyists cannot identify counterfeit coins. Consider this Etsy copy (right) if inserted into a Morgan roll. Would you be able to tell the difference?


In the past, scammers had to shell out for at least one uncirculated Carson City 1882-1884 Morgan dollars. Now, counterfeits are in play. This, in itself, is a good reason NOT to purchase these rolls.

Recommendations:

  1. If you want to stack silver or buy Morgan and Peace rolls, purchase from reputable online sellers using their own plastic rolls, like APMEX:

2. Do not bid or buy any roll on eBay or other online venues if one end of the roll looks opened or if the seller doesn’t show both ends of that roll. Classic bad example with no ends of roll depicted:


3. Do not fall for baited Carson City bank rolls. Those are almost always opened. Below is a 10-coin roll from eBay. (Note for newbies: Morgan and Peace dollars are routinely offered in 10-coin and 20-coin rolls. Do not assume all rolls have 20 coins.)


Finally, learn about Etsy replicas. Proxiblog has documented these in several articles. CLICK HERE FOR EXAMPLES.

The more you learn about coins, the less chance of your being snookered.

If you like posts like this, subscribe so you can be informed whenever there is a new article or column.

Proxiblog also has thousands of followers on Facebook Coin Groups, YouTube and social media. To get the latest discussion and commentary, be sure to friend us by clicking here.

You can find more information about types, varieties, errors, grading, bidding and buying in Coin News Updated: The Essential Guide to Online Bidding. Please consider buying or gifting the work for a friend, as it underwrites this hobbyist blog. Thank you.


2024 and 2024-D Cent Doubled Dies


These newly attributed doubled dies are not universally recognized yet by major holdering companies, meaning you typically will have to ask for attribution and pay extra for that, if you believe you have found and want to slab them. Also, you probably will need a loupe or microscope to see them. But they have been listed on Wexler’s and Variety Vista sites. You can explore the markers for both coins there.

Normally, Proxiblog does not acknowledge these minor errors. Since the Mint uses a single-squeeze hubbing process, meant to eliminate doubled dies, they still can occur when working dies are not properly aligned or when a defect in the die is not immediately recognized.

But these two doubled dies are being found and sold regularly on eBay and other venues. So we will explore them here.

2024 DDO CENT

Both the 2024 and 2024-D have ghost images of a double ear. The 2024 is the most prominent:


You will want to view the date with a loupe or microscope and pay close attention to the second “2” and “4” with less visible doubling on the first “2” and “4”:


You also will find doubling the first four letters of “Trust”:


Again, you can see other minor markers of this variety on Wexler’s and Variety Vista.

2024-D DDO CENT

If you use a coin microscope, you should be able to see doubling on the date, although the led lights can magnify the spread, as in the example below:


There is also a faint ghost image of a doubled ear.


The other markers also are faint. Check Wexler’s or Variety Vista for those.

“Sold” values for the 2024 and 2024-D DDO on eBay generally sell for $10 to $30 in circulated or uncertified uncirculated condition. If the double ear is prominent on a high-grade 2024-D DDR, sellers are getting between $35 and $50.

Do not buy or bid on any of these new doubled dies unless you clearly see the main markers. Many being offered lack them, using high grade 2024 and 2024-D Cents and erroneously stating they are doubled dies.

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You can find more information about types, varieties, errors, grading, bidding and buying in Coin News Updated: The Essential Guide to Online Bidding. Please consider buying or gifting the work for a friend, as it underwrites this hobbyist blog. Thank you.