Odds of Finding the next 1982-D Small Date Bronze Cent!

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According to AI, there is good and bad news about finding the third 1982-D Small Date bronze cent–perhaps the most sought after coin due to social media hype about its lottery-prize-like value.

As you read this, remember that AI is not an expert numismatist. Maybe those folks would have used different metrics. But I am an AI authority as one of the top technology professors with 48 years at top research institutions. So I expect those fellow hobbyists will be commenting and demurring and otherwise questioning these results.

Let’s have some fun.

Only two of these transitional varieties have been found since it was theorized that a copper planchet with a small date might have left the Denver Mint. Here they are, authenticated.

Some more facts: There are seven common varieties of 1982 cents: The copper ones should weigh 3.1 grams; the zinc ones, 2.5 grams. The copper ones are Large Date, Philadelphia; Small Date, Philadelphia; and Large Date, Denver. The zinc ones are Philadelphia, Large Date; Philadelphia, Small Date; Denver, Large Date; and Denver, Small Date.

The coveted transitional variety weighing 3.1 grams has these markers:

AI factored these odds: a hobbyist looking for the third example every day in a dollar’s worth of Lincoln cent pocket change over 40 years as roughly 1 in 300,000,000, or a probability of 0.0000000033.

Let’s illustrate those odds. Imagine one 1982-D Small Date 3.1 grams is mixed into 300,000,000 total cents. Let’s stack those coins one atop the other. They would reach 283 miles high, surpassing the International Space Station. Blindfolded, you pick exactly one coin from that stack anywhere up the cosmic ladder.

What? You don’t like that analogy?

How about this: You are 20,000 times more likely to be hit by lighting than finding the third example.

Here’s the AI screenshot:

But there is good news, too. AI factors that odds of another example (as many as 15-50 might exist!) being circulated in pocket change are nearly 100% probability!

Here’s the screenshot:

It was gratifying to know that AI cited Proxiblog about coins coming from two working dies. You can read that article by clicking here.

AI also included these factors:

  • The discovery coin was found in 2016.
  • The second was found in 2019.
  • This yields an empirical discovery rate of roughly 0.05 coins per year since the hunt began. This low yield confirms that while more coins exist, the vast majority of the 6.01 billion Denver cents have either been melted down, lost in landfills, or remain sitting unexamined in hoarders’ casual coin jars.

Summary of Your Search Odds

MetricStatistical Value
Odds a 3rd coin exists~100% (Virtually guaranteed)
Estimated total supply remaining15 to 50 coins
Odds per individual unsearched 1982-D cent1 in 300,000,000

Before you start celebrating and searching your grandparents’ coin jars, don’t count on winning the numismatic lottery. You would have better odds winning the Powerball jackpot (again hypothetically) if you bought a ticket every day for 40 years,

AI puts those odds as 1 in 20,000.

Remember the odds of the third 1982-D Small Date bronze coin? That’s 1 in 300,000,000!

Here is its breakdown of the math:

  • Single Ticket Odds: The odds of winning the Powerball jackpot with a single $2 ticket are 1 in 292,201,338.
  • Total Tickets Bought: Buying one ticket every day for 40 years (including leap years) equals 14,610 tickets.
  • Cumulative Probability: Each ticket is an independent event. Your cumulative chance of hitting the jackpot at least once over those 14,610 tries is roughly \(0.005\%\) (or about 1 in 20,000).

Have you made the correlation yet?

Go to the corner gas station. Buy a Powerball ticket. Your odds of winning the lottery jackpot with that single ticket is roughly the same as finding the third 1982-D Small Date bronze cent after 40 years of searching for the unicorn!

If you are intent on searching for those theorized 15-50 examples of the 1982-D Small Date bronze cent, keep doing it. Miracles happen.

Your own existence is 1 in 300,000,000!

AI states: “Yes, events with odds of 1 in 300,000,000 happen around us all the time. When dealing with massive populations or billions of trials, things that are nearly impossible for an individual become statistical guarantees on a larger scale.”

Let’s start with your own existence.

AI states, “Every person alive is the result of a 1-in-300-million event. During human conception, a typical fertile ejaculation releases between 100 million and 300 million sperm cells. The fact that one highly specific sperm successfully fertilized a specific egg to create your exact DNA blueprint means that your existence is equal to finding the third 1982-D Small Date bronze cent!”

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Proxiblog also has thousands of followers on Facebook Coin Groups, YouTube and other social media. To get the latest discussion and commentary, be sure to friend us by clicking here.

You can find more information about types, varieties, errors, grading, bidding and buying in Coin News Updated: The Essential Guide to Online Bidding. Please consider buying or gifting the work for a friend, as it underwrites this hobbyist blog. Thank you.

1946-S/D Cent

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The 1946-S/D variety is highly collectible because it is the only S-over-D overmintmark in the entire Lincoln Cent series.

You will need magnification to see this variety. A loupe should do it, but you can also use a coin microscope. Here’s how it looks without magnification:

In 1946, mintmarks were hand-punched into coin dies. A mint employee punched a “D” into a working die and then realized that it should have been an “S”–a perfect example of how these errors happen. He did his best to correct human error.

To identify the 1946-S/D variety, use that magnification. Look for the curve of the “S” underneath the “D” in the upper inside loop of the “S.”

Study the crossbar of the “D” appearing through the center cavity of the “S.”

The value of a 1946-S/D cent depends on condition, eye appeal and appearance. There are three designations for cents: Brown, Red-Brown, or Red.

Color DesignationPercentage of Original Mint-Red ColorDescription
Red (RD)95% or moreRetains almost all of its original brilliant mint bloom, allowing for only very slight mellowing.
Red-Brown (RB)Between 5% and 95%A mix of original red luster and brown toning from air exposure.
Brown (BN)Less than 5%The original red color has completely or nearly completely turned into a brown patina.

As for value, from Fine to Very Fine, you are looking at a retail value of $20 to $25. In mint state red, the coin will sell for hundreds if holdered by PCGS or NGC. There have been examples in s MS66 Red for thousands of dollars.

If you are interested in varieties, be sure to check out Proxiblog’s directory, which includes articles, illustrations and markers for popular coins.

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Proxiblog also has thousands of followers on Facebook Coin Groups, YouTube and social media. To get the latest discussion and commentary, be sure to friend us by clicking here.

You can find more information about errors and varieties as well as buying and bidding on coins in Coin News Updated: The Essential Guide to Online Bidding. Please consider purchasing the work for yourself or a friend, as it underwrites this hobbyist website. Thank you.

Markers for 1916-D Dime

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The 1916-D Mercury Dime is the key date of the Mercury series with a mintage of 264,000 coins. In 1916, the Philadelphia Mint made 22,180,080 coins and the San Francisco Mint, 10,450,000. Those two other mintages are important because scammers began added a mintmark to Philadelphia coins that year. Many also altered 1916-S dimes to make that mintmark look like a D.

Fortunately, we know much about the Denver mintmark. For starters, the Mint used the same punch tool for the 1916-D as it did for the coveted 1914-D Cent.

Look closely: The outer shape of the D is squared off rather than rounded. And the cavity inside the D has a vague triangular shape rather than oval.

Four reverse dies were used on the 1916-D Dime. If your coin deviates from these positions, it is fake.

Jack D. Young has a great Proxiblog article on fake 1916-Ds offered on eBay. He made this graphic below, which we use here. Take a photo of your 1916-D coin or a screenshot if you are considering purchasing one and then compare.

Two of the four genuine reverse dies feature a repunched mint mark (Dies 2 and 3 above).

Here is the example used earlier but now identified.

Genuine 1916-D Dimes often have tiny die scratches or die cracks near the date on the obverse.

It is important to know markers of rarities in coin collecting. Otherwise you may end up with a counterfeit or replica if not holdered by a major company like PCGS or NGC. Be sure to check out our rarity tab for markers of our most desirable coins.

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Proxiblog also has thousands of followers on Facebook Coin Groups, YouTube and social media. To get the latest discussion and commentary, be sure to friend us by clicking here.

You can find more information about types, varieties, errors, grading, bidding and buying in Coin News Updated: The Essential Guide to Online Bidding. Please consider buying or gifting the work for a friend, as it underwrites this hobbyist blog. Thank you.

Markers for 1877 Indian Cent

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One of the most counterfeited coins is the key date 1877 Indian Cent. It has a low mintage of 852,500. Genuine examples cost hundreds and thousands of dollars. A Good-4 example retails for $650. Extra fine ones go for $3,000 and MS63 Brown, $7,000.

Those values alone make it necessary to know markers so you do not end up with a fake, altered or replica coin.

On all genuine circulation strikes, a single reverse working die was used. So these markers are vital and uniform.

The “N” in ONE slowly grows weaker and shallow as it proceeds to the bottom right corner.

The top left corner of the “N” in CENT also is weakly struck and shallow when you compare it to other letters.

If these “N”s are sharply struck on the reverse, you’re looking at a counterfeit coin.

There are also obverse markers, beginning with the so-called “Slanted 77” in the date. Draw an imaginary horizontal line across the date, and the second “7” should be slightly lower than the first.

If the “7”s are parallel and equal in orientation, you have a fake coin.

You also should check the second “7” for evidence of tooling, changing the last digit of the less valuable 1871, 1874 or 1879 so it appears like a “7.”

You can also do the balance test to see if your coin is a counterfeit. Genuine Indian Head cents have beleved edges and as such cannot stand balanced on its edge. Chinese fakes have flat squared edges. You can balance these.

Also many examples of contemporary counterfeits have a mushy or weakly struck “United States of America.” On genuine coins, this should be legible and crisp. In the image below, the left example is the counterfeit.

Keep in mind that Etsy and Temu sell replicas. Example:

These replicas have many of the same markers as authentic coins and often appear on eBay as authentic.

As a rule, be especially wary of spending hundreds or thousands of dollars on raw 1877 cents if you do not know the markers or have doubts about them. Best to wait for your treasured key date graded by a top holdering company and sold on a legitimate site or shop.

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Proxiblog also has thousands of followers on Facebook Coin Groups, YouTube and social media. To get the latest discussion and commentary, be sure to friend us by clicking here.

You can find more information about types, varieties, errors, grading, bidding and buying in Coin News Updated: The Essential Guide to Online Bidding. Please consider buying or gifting the work for a friend, as it underwrites this hobbyist blog. Thank you.

Struck Counterfeit 1875S C-4 Trade Dollar

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By Jack Riley

A recent 1875S Trade Dollar was shared by fellow collector Mike Printy, prompting a discussion about whether the coin was genuine or counterfeit. The coin (below) does attribute as a C-4 die marriage. Many well versed collectors note the chopmarks do not appear genuine and we’re likely done with a modern punch.

The photo courtesy of GreatCollections below shows a genuine 1875S C-4 counterstamped Trade Dollar.

Worth mentioning is that the coin in question was housed in a PCGS AU details holder but was cracked out by a previous owner.

NGC has done tremendous work on sharing information on newly discovered counterfeits. This article cited below was written in 2011, about the time the coin in question surfaced. Photos below Courtesy of NGC.

Diving into this article and coin tells the tale. Numerous repeating circulation marks are shared between the two coins. The obverse notes two minor depressions in the date along with four depression marks in the field around the first left star (highlighted in red). What isn’t mentioned in the NGC article is the horizontal scratch through the 8 and indent in the field between the 7 and 8.

The reverse of this coin may be more telling than the obverse! A scratch through “T” in “UNITED”, depression below “E” and a scratch in the field are very clear. One minor depression mark below S1, a couple below the motto, and a long horizontal scratch left of the mintmark.

I did take this to a local area facility to have it sigma tested, and it passes for 90% silver. What isn’t captured well in photos is this coin lacks luster and has an overall dull appearance across the entire surface.

In conclusion, this coin is a highly deceptive counterfeit that mimics a genuine die pairing. This likely stems from the same counterfeiters as the 1875CC C-17 counterfeits that I have previously talked about. One could assume if this had not been chopmarked in the manor that it was that it may have prolonged its time as a “genuine coin.”

If you are interested in learning about counterfeit coins, go to this tab on Proxiblog. Collectively, Jack Riley, Jack D. Young and Michael Bugeja have published some 21 articles about counterfeits.

If you like posts like this, please subscribe so you can be informed whenever there is a new article or column.

Proxiblog also has thousands of followers on Facebook Coin Groups, YouTube and social media. To get the latest discussion and commentary, be sure to friend us by clicking here.

You can find more information about errors and varieties as well as buying and bidding on coins in Coin News Updated: The Essential Guide to Online Bidding. Please consider purchasing the work for yourself or a friend, as it underwrites this hobbyist website. Thank you.

Markers for 1955 Doubled Die Obverse

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This spectacular coin is the most famous mint variety, and as a consequence, also is one of the most counterfeited of U.S. coins. This article covers how it happened and then illustrates how you can tell if your coin is genuine.

To begin with, the 1955 DDO is dramatic! So much is doubled on the obverse. See:

The 1955 doubled die is a die variety. Even though employees at the mint made an error and did not stop production, this is a variety. The planchet was only struck once by the coining press, but the die used to strike it already had a doubled image.

In this case, during production, the hub and the die were misaligned and rotated slightly counter-clockwise, accounting for the large spread of lettering and numbers.

Coinage operators, under pressure to produce 1955 cents, failed to notice the mistake, allowing this defective die to be used in striking. Estimates are 24,000 to 40,000 coins were released being discovered.

That was the first error. The second had to do with mint officials releasing the doubled die into circulation to avoid a regional coin shortage.

Because this coin is considered an ultra rarity, it is one of the most counterfeited and replicated U.S. coins.

In genuine coins, the doubling has a large spread and is sharp, as if carved by a knife. Be wary of soft doubling and pay attention to the exact separation.

Here’s the difference between a genuine and replica, as offered by Etsy and Temu.

Note the mushy quality of the replica as well as difference in font sizes and orientation of “Liberty” and “In God We Trust.”

One more marker: In genuine coins, the portrait of Lincoln is sharp with no doubling or distortion. The above replica fails in this regard.

Any deviation or doubling on the portrait is a fake.

Only one pair of dies was used to strike the original batch, so every genuine 1955 DDO has the exact same reverse markings.

Someone claimed to have found this coin in Coinstar. Here’s how I identified it as fake:

The spread on the “55” is wrong. Hence, a fake.

One other marker. You would need a microscope to see this, but tiny vertical and polishing lines are present on the reverse in this area, along with die scratches.

Also take care to understand the difference between machine doubling and hub doubling.

FeatureGenuine 1955 DDOMachine Doubling (“Poor Man’s”)
CauseError is engraved directly onto the die.The die slipped or vibrated while striking the coin.
AppearanceBoth sets of details are raised, rounded, and fully formed.The second image looks like a flat, shaved-down “shelf”.
ScaleExtends across the date and all letters.Usually only visible on the last digit of the date.
ValueWorth thousands of dollars.Worthless face value (under $2).

Also on the reverse, a genuine 1955 Doubled Die should have a 5% slight misalignment on the die. You would need to identify that yourself.

Please do not be fooled by 1955 DDO errors as in this dramatically misaligned copy from Etsy.

All the markers in the above replica are wrong.

If you have or inherited or plan to bid on a raw 1955 DDO, make sure to check all the markers. These are expensive coins!

Holdering 1955 DDO cents is imperative to showcase authenticity. China exports tens of thousands of fake and replica examples. So if you have a raw example, or bought one, send to PCGS, NGC, ANACS or CAC for authentication.

If you like posts like this, subscribe so you can be informed whenever there is a new article or column.

Proxiblog also has thousands of followers on Facebook Coin Groups, YouTube and social media. To get the latest discussion and commentary, be sure to friend us by clicking here.

You can find more information about types, varieties, errors, grading, bidding and buying in Coin News Updated: The Essential Guide to Online Bidding. Please consider buying or gifting the work for a friend, as it underwrites this hobbyist blog. Thank you.

Bad eBay Sellers … and What We Are Doing About It

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By Jack D. Young

This is an updated version for Proxiblog; the initial version was discussed during a “Live Coin Q&A’s podcast” and can be found at the YouTube video below. You can view that or continue reading about an 1891-CC Morgan “from the land of the Bay” … with a new twist.

Here is the listing in question:

Current eBay listed counterfeit 1891-CC not-PCGS Morgan Dollar

This coin includes “Slash, the eagle”–a common reverse we have seen on multiple counterfeit China Morgan Dollars of various dates and a mislocated “not-PCGS” label! But here the label location was new!

Large image of the reverse- not only does it sport the “slash” but the wrong mintmark position for a genuine 1891-CC:

So I thought I would start a conversation with the seller. Seller says, “It’s my grandfathers!” I respond, “Did he visit China recently?” Seller deadpans: “He’s dead.”

Didn’t see that coming. But looking up the on-line cert yielded this:

No image. I thought looking up the cited registry example would show an image of the genuine coin, but nooooo!

And the Chinese characters under “PCGS Home” seemed appropriate for this example!

More digging finally yielded a low-resolution image of the genuine example listed some time ago by APMEX.

I created this combination image of all three for reference:

What about Grandpa’s coin? It stayed up with active bidding. I posted it on my Facebook page as well as reported it to eBay through their (useless) reporting process.

I actually reported it twice, with the same results both times. Screen shot of my 2nd attempt:

Both times the Baybots said it is AOK:

So I suppose Grandpa would be proud as this finally sold for $332.00:

One has to wonder if the buyer will ever figure it out?

But once again, as Michael Bugeja, Jack Riley and I have done multiple times, reporting counterfeits to eBay, only to see the fake coins sell (as this one did), we have to wonder how can we counter this alarming trend of counterfeits being sold despite multiple reports, alerts and messages.

It seems the only recourse is to get out the word, as I did with the “Live Coin Q&A’s podcast” and as we do regularly here.

If you are interested in all of our reports, go to this tab on Proxiblog. Collectively, we have published some 21 articles about counterfeits with eBay figuring prominently in them.

If you like posts like this, please subscribe so you can be informed whenever there is a new article or column.

Proxiblog also has thousands of followers on Facebook Coin Groups, YouTube and social media. To get the latest discussion and commentary, be sure to friend us by clicking here.

You can find more information about errors and varieties as well as buying and bidding on coins in Coin News Updated: The Essential Guide to Online Bidding. Please consider purchasing the work for yourself or a friend, as it underwrites this hobbyist website. Thank you.

Identifying 1893-S Morgan Dollar

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Fake and replica 1893-S Morgan dollars abound as only 100,000 were minted with current values in multiples of thousands of dollars. This is a summary of markers so that you can identify this coveted key date.

The basic test of any Morgan dollar is its weight: 26.73 grams and diameter of 38.1 millimeters. Any deviation is a fake.

The 1893-S was produced using a single obverse die and two reverse dies. In other words, any deviation of markers also signifies a counterfeit.

View the date. The “1” is squarely atop the fourth denticle (my illustration).

Another marker, difficult to see on worn dollars, is a faint line through the “T” in “Liberty.”

Because the reverse had two dies, they are numbered VAM-1 and VAM-2 according to the directory by Leroy Van Allen and A. George Mallis (hence, VAM after their names). The key marker is the mintmark. VAM-1 has a centered “S” and VAM-2 an “S” tilted slightly to the right.

Be careful if purchasing a 1893-S Morgan dollar. Run the above tests. Again, any deviation from the markers is a red flag for a counterfeit. China also exports counterfeits in fake PCGS holders. To learn more about that, see Jack D. Young’s “Counterfeit PCGS Morgan.”

If you like posts like this, subscribe so you can be informed whenever there is a new article or column.

Proxiblog also has thousands of followers on Facebook Coin Groups, YouTube and social media. To get the latest discussion and commentary, be sure to friend us by clicking here.

You can find more information about types, varieties, errors, grading, bidding and buying in Coin News Updated: The Essential Guide to Online Bidding. Please consider buying or gifting the work for a friend, as it underwrites this hobbyist blog. Thank you.

2026 Privy Marked 25c Rarity

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To celebrate the nation’s Semiquincentennial–250 years–the US Mint produced 250,000 Declaration of Independence Quarters featuring a special “July 4th” privy mark. These quarters were sent with regular business strikes to banks and now has become a desirable variety, typically selling raw for $100 and several hundreds more if slabbed in high mint state.

In introducing the coin, Mint Director Paul Hollis said, “We hope Americans enjoy the search for these iconic quarters as they’re meant to be shared, saved, and remembered as part of this historic anniversary.”

No Washington Quarter has such a low mintage. The key dates 1932-D had a mintage of 436,800 and 1932-S, 408,000.

Let’s show where you can find the privy mark and display it next to a regular issue.

As you can see, the obverse side displays a profile of Thomas Jefferson and the reverse features the Liberty Bell. The privy mark reads “July 4th. Unlike other business strikes, these rare quarters bear no mint mark, making the privy mark the primary indicator of its rarity.

You can find raw and holdered examples on eBay and other online venues.

If you know how to grade and have an exceptional high mint state example, like this one below, then consider holdering it.

Among the highest graded examples have been MS67, as above. Gem Grades (MS65 to MS66+) have been found in rolls and also go for hundreds of dollars.

As you can imagine, counterfeits, replicas and altered coins are making the rounds. The Better Business Bureau has put out an alert about this.

Scammers have done the following:

  1. Altered Mint Marks: Criminals use standard 2026 Philadelphia or Denver quarters, grind off the “P” or “D” mint mark, and engrave or stamp a fake “July 4” text onto the field.
  2. Misplaced Privy Designs: Some fakes feature poorly defined text or put the mark in the wrong spot.
  3. Forgotten Mintmark: Scammers put a fake July 4th privy mark but forget to shave off the mintmark.

The best place to find these rare privy marked quarters, apart from pocket change, is securing or buying bank rolls … and hoping you’ll get lucky.

If you like posts like this, subscribe so you can be informed whenever there is a new article or column.

Proxiblog also has thousands of followers on Facebook Coin Groups, YouTube and social media. To get the latest discussion and commentary, be sure to friend us by clicking here.

You can find more information about types, varieties, errors, grading, bidding and buying in Coin News Updated: The Essential Guide to Online Bidding. Please consider buying or gifting the work for a friend, as it underwrites this hobbyist blog. Thank you.

Proxiblog Featured in USA Today

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Bugeja discusses 1982-D Small Date Bronze Cent

USA Today published a comprehensive article on the hype about the 1982-D Small Date bronze cent variety, noting its rarity–only two found–and odds of finding the third, along with eBay sellers out to scam others by selling ordinary cents from that year. (In 1982, the US Mint made 16,729,361,847 cents in Denver and Philadelphia.)

Proxiblog and its founder, Michael Bugeja, figure prominently in the 8/17/26 USA Today piece.

“I’m happy to see the widespread distribution of this article by Mike Snider,” Bugeja said. USA Today has an estimated weekday print circulation of roughly 89,200 to 103,600 copies, alongside over 2 million digital subscribers, making it one of the most widely read daily newspapers in the United States. “Perhaps this will enlighten all those new collectors believing they will find the rarity in pocket change.

“There are better ways to spend hobby time.”

Excerpts:

The USA Today article quotes Bugeja and Proxiblog extensively along with these other experts: John Brush, president of rare coin trading and auctioning company DLRC;  Donn Pearlman, a spokesman for the Professional Numismatists Guild; and Mary Sauvain, executive director of the Anti-Counterfeiting Educational Foundation.

You can access the USA Today article by clicking here.

For those interested in Proxiblog’s extensive coverage of the 1982-D Small Date Bronze Cent, read:

Proxiblog.org is one of the premier coin collecting sites on the web. Founded in 2011, by Michael Bugeja, former columnist for Coin World and past member of the US Treasury Department’s Citizen Coinage Advisory Committee, Proxiblog remains one of the earliest consistently accessible coin blogs. It has the largest illustrated coin glossary as well as a directory of errors and varieties with associated articles, a “new and youth hobbyist” tab, 20 most accessed articles, and some 40 coin videos about rarities, doubled dies, and other hobby insights.

If you like posts like this, subscribe so you can be informed whenever there is a new article or column.

Proxiblog also has thousands of followers on Facebook Coin Groups, YouTube and other social media. To get the latest discussion and commentary, be sure to friend us by clicking here.

You can find more information about types, varieties, errors, grading, bidding and buying in Coin News Updated: The Essential Guide to Online Bidding. Please consider buying or gifting the work for a friend, as it underwrites this hobbyist blog. Thank you.